Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints28
- Terry RozierAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints35
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Bub CarringtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–94
- Q42.1shot clock turnover120–94
- Q426.1Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Martin assists)120–94
- Q437.1Jaylen Martin defensive rebound120–91
- Q439.1Terry Rozier misses 26-foot three point jumper120–91
- Q41:01Terry Rozier defensive rebound120–91
- Q41:04Justin Champagnie misses 23-foot three point shot120–91
- Q41:07Bub Carrington defensive rebound120–91
- Q41:10Isaiah Stevens misses driving floating jump shot120–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:30Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 22% → 27% +5WSH 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q110:58Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot two point shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 2 – 4 WSH · MIA 71% → 75% +3MIA 71% → 75%+3 pts
- Q110:17Jordan Poole makes 5-foot two point shotMIA 4 – 6 WSH · WSH 22% → 25% +3WSH 22% → 25%+3 pts
- Q19:36Bam Adebayo makes two point shot (Alec Burks assists)MIA 6 – 6 WSH · MIA 74% → 78% +3MIA 74% → 78%+3 pts
- Q18:55Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 9 – 6 WSH · MIA 78% → 82% +5MIA 78% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -9.5
- ML MIA -450 / WSH +340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.5%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -360
- WSH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.0 – 102.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1260 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +31 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −11, Anthony Gill −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +159 Elo | MIA 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 108.827th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 120.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −12.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 105.230th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 116.928th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 7–2930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+31 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon left ankle sprain−11 Elo
- Anthony Gill left hip strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–41 | 31–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–21 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 15–20 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–1 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.