Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Patrick WilliamsPoints21
- Patrick WilliamsAssists5
- Zach CollinsRebounds13
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints28
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–135
- Q414.1Chuma Okeke makes 1-foot dunk (Emoni Bates assists)113–135
- Q420.1Javonte Green defensive rebound113–133
- Q425.0Jevon Carter misses 16-foot pullup jump shot113–133
- Q436.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound113–133
- Q437.2Jaylon Tyson misses driving layup113–133
- Q450.1Jevon Carter traveling113–133
- Q41:01Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Emoni Bates assists)113–133
- Q41:17Emanuel Miller personal foul113–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumperCHI 3 – 0 CLE · CHI 12% → 16% +3CHI 12% → 16%+3 pts
- Q16:29Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumperCHI 12 – 10 CLE · CHI 12% → 16% +4CHI 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q15:43Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CHI 12 – 13 CLE · CLE 84% → 88% +4CLE 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q210:48Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CHI 26 – 32 CLE · CLE 88% → 91% +3CLE 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q32:10Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)CHI 79 – 90 CLE · CLE 92% → 95% +3CLE 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -15.5
- ML CHI +700 / CLE -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 73.3%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -738
- CHI +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.5 – 128.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −34 | CHI: Missing Lonzo Ball −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +175 Elo | CLE 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 82.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 122.11st of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +9.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 110.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 33–62nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−51 Elo- Lonzo Ball right wrist sprain−7 Elo
Cavaliers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–36 | 46–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 42–30 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 40–38 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.