Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints17
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- A.J. LawsonRebounds6
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Zach CollinsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–137
- Q416.0A.J. Lawson makes 1-foot dunk (Jonathan Mogbo assists)118–137
- Q416.0Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound116–137
- Q418.2Jonathan Mogbo blocks Jahmir Young 's 26-foot three point jumper116–137
- Q436.0A.J. Lawson makes 26-foot three pointer116–137
- Q439.0Jalen Smith makes tip shot113–137
- Q439.0Jalen Smith offensive rebound113–135
- Q441.1Emanuel Miller misses layup113–135
- Q452.0Cole Swider makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jared Rhoden assists)113–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:50Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)TOR 21 – 17 CHI · CHI 45% → 51% +7CHI 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q13:51A.J. Lawson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 26 – 24 CHI · TOR 38% → 45% +7TOR 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q12:55Orlando Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 29 – 29 CHI · TOR 34% → 40% +7TOR 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q12:30Orlando Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 32 – 29 CHI · TOR 40% → 47% +7TOR 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q132.2Zach Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)TOR 32 – 36 CHI · CHI 62% → 68% +7CHI 62% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML TOR +145 / CHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.5 – 121.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +27 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +76 Elo | CHI 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 117.36th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 120.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.3 | Margin | −2.722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 111.720th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–26 | Road vs home | 14–2324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–28 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–5 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.