Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Jevon CarterPoints17
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Thunder- Isaiah JoePoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–145
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–145
- Q413.2Kenrich Williams defensive rebound117–145
- Q417.1Jevon Carter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot117–145
- Q423.1Talen Horton-Tucker offensive rebound117–145
- Q426.1Julian Phillips misses 23-foot three point shot117–145
- Q431.1Jalen Smith defensive rebound117–145
- Q436.0Isaiah Joe misses 26-foot three point jumper117–145
- Q447.1Julian Phillips makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)117–145
- Q456.1Branden Carlson makes free throw 2 of 2114–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:22Jalen Williams makes 23-foot three pointerCHI 3 – 9 OKC · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q16:34Matas Buzelis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 8 – 9 OKC · CHI 10% → 13% +3CHI 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q14:57Nikola Vucevic makes 4-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 12 – 13 OKC · CHI 12% → 14% +2CHI 12% → 14%+2 pts
- Q14:22Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHI 12 – 16 OKC · OKC 86% → 89% +3OKC 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q11:05Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHI 18 – 26 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML CHI +625 / OKC -950
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.0%, market 86.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -656
- CHI +656 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.5 – 128.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1766 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | +44 | CHI: Missing Lonzo Ball −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +315 Elo | OKC 86.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 86.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 119.64th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.4 | Margin | +12.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 117.54th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 104.91st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 32–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+18 Elo- Lonzo Ball right wrist sprain−5 Elo
Thunder
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–34 | 50–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 47–24 |
| Underdog | 31–25 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37 | 42–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.