Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists11
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.0Harrison Barnes misses 3-foot two point shot114–113
- Q44.1Spurs Full timeout114–113
- Q44.1shot clock turnover114–113
- Q44.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound114–113
- Q44.1Darius Garland misses 25-foot three point jumper114–113
- Q46.0Max Strus offensive rebound114–113
- Q47.0Chris Paul blocks Max Strus 's 3-foot driving layup114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:40Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point shot (Keldon Johnson assists)CLE 88 – 82 SA · SA 8% → 13% +5SA 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q42:16Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Stephon Castle assists)CLE 112 – 107 SA · SA 2% → 8% +6SA 2% → 8%+6 pts
- Q41:55Darius Garland makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 114 – 107 SA · CLE 93% → 98% +4CLE 93% → 98%+4 pts
- Q41:02Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)CLE 114 – 110 SA · SA <1% → 6% +5SA <1% → 6%+5 pts
- Q429.0Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)CLE 114 – 113 SA · SA 1% → 27% +25SA 1% → 27%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML CLE -800 / SA +500
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9
- CLE 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 80.7%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -533
- SA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 127.0 – 114.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1665 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | −29 | CLE: Usual rotation · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +248 Elo | CLE 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.4 | Points scored | 114.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 116.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.1 | Margin | −2.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 112.518th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 115.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–10 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–30 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 42–28 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders | 49–27 | 44–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.