Portland Trail Blazers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints37
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds18
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints31
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–118
- Q415.1Rayan Rupert makes two point shot113–118
- Q422.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q422.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2111–117
- Q422.1Rayan Rupert personal take foul111–116
- Q424.2Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound111–116
- Q426.0Matas Buzelis blocks Jabari Walker 's 26-foot three point jumper111–116
- Q433.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q433.1Bulls offensive team rebound111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:31Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jabari Walker assists)POR 72 – 72 CHI · POR 29% → 38% +9POR 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q42:45Dalano Banton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jabari Walker assists)POR 106 – 108 CHI · POR 11% → 29% +18POR 11% → 29%+18 pts
- Q41:56Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)POR 106 – 111 CHI · CHI 73% → 92% +19CHI 73% → 92%+19 pts
- Q41:44Dalano Banton makes driving layupPOR 108 – 111 CHI · POR 7% → 18% +11POR 7% → 18%+11 pts
- Q41:27Nikola Vucevic makes 7-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)POR 108 – 113 CHI · CHI 84% → 94% +11CHI 84% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -6.5
- ML POR +210 / CHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 63.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -221
- POR +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.0 – 119.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | +6 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −19, Deandre Ayton −18, Duop Reath −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +98 Elo | CHI 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 117.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.3 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 112.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–25 | Road vs home | 15–2324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+24 Elo- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−19 Elo
- Deandre Ayton left calf strain−18 Elo
- Duop Reath right knee soreness−5 Elo
Bulls
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–34 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 37–29 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.