Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints36
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds15
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints18
- Jonathan MogboAssists5
- Ja'Kobe WalterRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–103
- Q48.0A.J. Lawson makes 1-foot two point shot112–103
- Q417.0Rayan Rupert out of bounds lost ball turnover112–101
- Q439.1Ochai Agbaji makes layup (Jonathan Mogbo assists)112–101
- Q443.08 second turnover112–99
- Q451.1Ochai Agbaji makes 1-foot dunk (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)112–99
- Q41:04Rayan Rupert makes tip shot112–97
- Q41:04Rayan Rupert offensive rebound110–97
- Q41:05Jabari Walker misses layup110–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:48Shaedon Sharpe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 58 – 58 TOR · POR 50% → 60% +10POR 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q36:24Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three pointer (A.J. Lawson assists)POR 62 – 63 TOR · TOR 34% → 44% +10TOR 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q34:41Orlando Robinson makes 22-foot three point shot (Jonathan Mogbo assists)POR 66 – 68 TOR · TOR 38% → 48% +10TOR 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q34:26Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 69 – 68 TOR · POR 52% → 62% +10POR 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q33:07Dalano Banton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 76 – 70 TOR · POR 69% → 78% +9POR 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -5.5
- ML POR -210 / TOR +175
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- POR: Elo 61.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -186
- TOR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.5 – 109.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −23 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −18, Deandre Ayton −16, Scoot Henderson −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +81 Elo | POR 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.9 | Points scored | 110.823rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 115.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | −4.524th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–25 | Road vs home | 17–2123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+22 Elo- Anfernee Simons right forearm injury−18 Elo
- Deandre Ayton strained left calf−16 Elo
- Scoot Henderson concussion protocol−1 Elo
Raptors
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–34 | 47–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 37–29 | 39–24 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.