Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints37
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints22
- KJ SimpsonAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–117
- Q419.1Emanuel Miller makes free throw 2 of 2131–117
- Q419.1Emanuel Miller makes free throw 1 of 2130–117
- Q419.1DaQuan Jeffries shooting foul129–117
- Q424.1KJ Simpson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Sims assists)129–117
- Q434.1Emanuel Miller makes 1-foot dunk (Zach Collins assists)129–114
- Q444.1DaQuan Jeffries makes free throw 2 of 2127–114
- Q444.1DaQuan Jeffries makes free throw 1 of 2127–113
- Q444.1E.J. Liddell personal foul127–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:58Seth Curry makes 27-foot three point jumperCHI 5 – 10 CHA · CHA 29% → 35% +6CHA 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q17:08Josh Giddey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 10 – 17 CHA · CHI 53% → 60% +6CHI 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q16:38Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 13 – 17 CHA · CHI 60% → 66% +6CHI 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q29:52Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)CHI 34 – 31 CHA · CHI 71% → 77% +6CHI 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q29:25Coby White makes 28-foot three pointerCHI 37 – 33 CHA · CHI 73% → 79% +6CHI 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -7.5
- ML CHI -360 / CHA +280
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -8.5
- CHI 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 79.6%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- CHI -297
- CHA +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 119.0 – 111.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1263 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −13 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +237 Elo | CHI 79.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 105.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 105.629th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 113.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 12–2726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–36 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 30–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–1 CHA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.