Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints25
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- KJ SimpsonAssists4
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–102
- Q46.1shot clock turnover125–102
- Q430.2Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 2 of 2125–102
- Q430.2Tidjane Salaun makes free throw 1 of 2125–101
- Q430.2Trey Lyles shooting foul125–100
- Q430.2Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound125–100
- Q431.2Tidjane Salaun misses two point shot125–100
- Q435.0Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound125–100
- Q437.1Jae Crowder misses 20-foot jumper125–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:50DeMar DeRozan makes 14-foot pullup jump shotSAC 6 – 10 CHA · SAC 72% → 75% +4SAC 72% → 75%+4 pts
- Q15:28Domantas Sabonis makes layupSAC 11 – 12 CHA · SAC 76% → 79% +3SAC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q14:53Tidjane Salaun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Sims assists)SAC 12 – 15 CHA · CHA 19% → 24% +5CHA 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q14:29Domantas Sabonis makes dunk (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 14 – 15 CHA · SAC 76% → 79% +3SAC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q13:27Domantas Sabonis makes tip shotSAC 16 – 16 CHA · SAC 77% → 80% +3SAC 77% → 80%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -11.5
- ML SAC -700 / CHA +450
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -5.5
- SAC 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- SAC: Elo 71.1%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- SAC -481
- CHA +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.5 – 102.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1273 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −12 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +156 Elo | SAC 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 105.628th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 113.615th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 105.629th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 113.720th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 12–2626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–44 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–29 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 29–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.