Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints29
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–116
- Q40.2Kings offensive team rebound111–116
- Q40.2Domantas Sabonis vs. JT Thor (Keegan Murray gains possession)111–116
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot111–116
- Q411.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound111–116
- Q413.1Justin Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q413.1Wizards offensive team rebound111–116
- Q413.1Justin Champagnie misses free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q413.1Zach LaVine personal foul111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:12Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)SAC 73 – 83 WSH · WSH 53% → 64% +11WSH 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q347.1Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 77 – 88 WSH · WSH 59% → 71% +11WSH 59% → 71%+11 pts
- Q47:00DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 93 – 99 WSH · SAC 21% → 35% +14SAC 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q455.1DeMar DeRozan makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 108 – 111 WSH · SAC 4% → 16% +12SAC 4% → 16%+12 pts
- Q440.0JT Thor makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tristan Vukcevic assists)SAC 109 – 114 WSH · WSH 77% → 98% +21WSH 77% → 98%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -13.5
- ML SAC -1000 / WSH +600
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6
- SAC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 73.2%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- SAC -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.5 – 109.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1250 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +6 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −13, Colby Jones −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +174 Elo | SAC 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 81.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 108.627th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 120.930th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −12.330th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 116.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 7–3030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+6 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon sprained left ankle−13 Elo
- Colby Jones right lower leg contusion−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–43 | 31–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 22–28 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 31–41 |
| Overs–unders | 40–35 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.