Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints37
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds9
Cavaliers- Ty JeromePoints20
- Max StrusAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–113
- Q42.0Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2120–113
- Q42.0Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2119–113
- Q42.0Isaac Okoro personal foul118–113
- Q46.2Kings Full timeout118–113
- Q46.2(00:06.9) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)118–113
- Q46.2Malik Monk enters the game for Keon Ellis118–113
- Q46.2Isaac Okoro enters the game for Jarrett Allen118–113
- Q46.2Donovan Mitchell steps out of bounds turnover118–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:51Max Strus makes 22-foot three pointer (Jarrett Allen assists)SAC 105 – 104 CLE · CLE 37% → 55% +18CLE 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q44:29Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 110 – 106 CLE · SAC 47% → 67% +20SAC 47% → 67%+20 pts
- Q44:13Max Strus makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)SAC 110 – 109 CLE · CLE 32% → 52% +20CLE 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q43:19DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 113 – 109 CLE · SAC 50% → 72% +22SAC 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q41:56Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 116 – 111 CLE · SAC 64% → 87% +23SAC 64% → 87%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML SAC +340 / CLE -450
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.9%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -360
- SAC +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.0 – 123.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +13 | SAC: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +229 Elo | CLE 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 72.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 122.21st of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +10.02nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 120.11st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 110.38th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 33–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–44 | 46–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 42–29 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 41–36 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.