New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints25
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints36
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–115
- Q47.1Jalen Duren makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)106–115
- Q412.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound106–113
- Q415.1Miles McBride misses 23-foot three point jumper106–113
- Q420.1P.J. Tucker offensive rebound106–113
- Q421.2Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q421.2Knicks offensive team rebound106–113
- Q421.2Jalen Brunson misses free throw 1 of 2106–113
- Q421.2Malik Beasley shooting foul106–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:53Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)NY 83 – 80 DET · DET 32% → 43% +11DET 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q47:03Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three point shot (Miles McBride assists)NY 96 – 97 DET · NY 26% → 41% +15NY 26% → 41%+15 pts
- Q46:19Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Delon Wright assists)NY 99 – 99 DET · NY 30% → 47% +16NY 30% → 47%+16 pts
- Q45:31Ronald Holland II makes 1-foot layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)NY 99 – 101 DET · DET 53% → 65% +12DET 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q44:57Ronald Holland II makes 3-foot layup (Tobias Harris assists)NY 99 – 103 DET · DET 65% → 77% +11DET 65% → 77%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML NY +135 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- DET: Elo 50.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- NY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.0 – 117.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +40 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 113.214th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 112.717th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.810th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–40 | 43–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.