Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points23
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds18
Raptors- Ja'Kobe WalterPoints22
- Jamal SheadAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–105
- Q48.1shot clock turnover117–105
- Q432.1Pistons defensive team rebound117–105
- Q434.1Orlando Robinson misses 25-foot three point jumper117–105
- Q439.2Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2117–105
- Q439.2Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2116–105
- Q439.2Orlando Robinson loose ball foul115–105
- Q439.2Pistons defensive team rebound115–105
- Q441.0Ja'Kobe Walter misses 15-foot pullup jump shot115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:03Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 13 – 12 TOR · DET 75% → 80% +5DET 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q210:51Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Ronald Holland II assists)DET 34 – 30 TOR · DET 78% → 83% +5DET 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q22:39Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)DET 56 – 53 TOR · TOR 15% → 20% +5TOR 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q48:13Jared Rhoden makes two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)DET 95 – 91 TOR · TOR 14% → 20% +6TOR 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q47:41Malik Beasley makes two point shotDET 97 – 91 TOR · DET 80% → 87% +6DET 80% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML DET -525 / TOR +375
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.4 pts
- DET: Elo 67.5%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -399
- TOR +399 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.5 – 108.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | 0 | DET: Usual rotation · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +127 Elo | DET 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 115.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −4.624th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 108.326th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 112.815th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 17–2223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–34 | 47–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37 | 38–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–1 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.