Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points23
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–119
- Q42.1shot clock turnover103–119
- Q427.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2103–119
- Q427.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein103–118
- Q427.1Branden Carlson enters the game for Jalen Williams103–118
- Q427.1Adam Flagler enters the game for Chet Holmgren103–118
- Q427.1Dillon Jones enters the game for Luguentz Dort103–118
- Q427.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2103–118
- Q427.1Dennis Schroder personal foul103–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:25Paul Reed makes layup (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 97 – 102 OKC · DET 9% → 14% +5DET 9% → 14%+5 pts
- Q45:21Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DET 98 – 105 OKC · OKC 83% → 92% +9OKC 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q44:31Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 101 – 107 OKC · DET 3% → 9% +6DET 3% → 9%+6 pts
- Q43:55Ausar Thompson makes dunkDET 103 – 107 OKC · DET 8% → 15% +7DET 8% → 15%+7 pts
- Q43:20Jalen Williams makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)DET 103 – 109 OKC · OKC 85% → 93% +7OKC 85% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML DET +500 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10.5
- OKC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 84.2%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -533
- DET +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.5 – 123.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1770 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +54 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +290 Elo | OKC 84.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 80.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 119.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 106.92nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +13.01st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 104.91st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 33–51st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–33 | 51–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 48–24 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 43–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.