Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints38
- Zach EdeyAssists6
- Zach EdeyRebounds21
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Ausar ThompsonAssists5
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–103
- Q41.0Pistons offensive team rebound109–103
- Q41.0Malik Beasley misses 25-foot three point jumper109–103
- Q42.1Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2109–103
- Q42.1Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2108–103
- Q42.1Malik Beasley personal foul107–103
- Q44.0Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)107–103
- Q46.2Pistons offensive team rebound107–100
- Q46.2Zach Edey blocks Malik Beasley 's 2-foot two point shot107–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q338.0Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)MEM 73 – 75 DET · DET 45% → 57% +12DET 45% → 57%+12 pts
- Q410:47Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointer (Zach Edey assists)MEM 80 – 77 DET · MEM 51% → 63% +13MEM 51% → 63%+13 pts
- Q48:33Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach Edey assists)MEM 87 – 83 DET · MEM 55% → 69% +14MEM 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q44:09Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MEM 93 – 91 DET · DET 19% → 36% +17DET 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q42:19Desmond Bane makes 20-foot pullup jump shotMEM 101 – 96 DET · MEM 76% → 88% +12MEM 76% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- MEM 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 40.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 120.0 – 118.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | +16 | MEM: Missing Ja Morant −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +67 Elo | DET 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.8 | Points scored | 115.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 113.114th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 110.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.6 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 21–1615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−9 Elo- Ja Morant illness−40 Elo
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–39 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–22 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–32 | 39–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.