Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints30
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists7
- Zach EdeyRebounds13
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints35
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–108
- Q40.0(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)110–108
- Q40.0Ja Morant makes 9-foot two point shot110–108
- Q413.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Tyler Herro108–108
- Q413.1Grizzlies Full timeout108–108
- Q414.0Tyler Herro makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot108–108
- Q421.1Heat Full timeout108–106
- Q425.1Tyler Herro defensive rebound108–106
- Q427.1Bam Adebayo blocks Ja Morant's driving layup108–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:17Ja Morant makes 1-foot driving dunkMEM 105 – 103 MIA · MEM 54% → 71% +18MEM 54% → 71%+18 pts
- Q42:01Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 105 – 106 MIA · MIA 28% → 57% +29MIA 28% → 57%+29 pts
- Q41:07Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 108 – 106 MIA · MEM 39% → 77% +38MEM 39% → 77%+38 pts
- Q414.0Tyler Herro makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotMEM 108 – 108 MIA · MIA 6% → 49% +42MIA 6% → 49%+42 pts
- Q40.0Ja Morant makes 9-foot two point shotMEM 110 – 108 MIA · MEM 55% → 100% +45MEM 55% → 100%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML MEM -215 / MIA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -0.5
- MEM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 51.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.0 – 110.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −3 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −5 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +8 Elo | MEM 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.0 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 111.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Pace | 97.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 18–1922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−3 Elo- Andrew Wiggins right hamstring−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–38 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–21 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–31 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.