Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints43
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints35
- Jalen DurenAssists6
- Isaiah StewartRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q46.1shot clock turnover127–117
- Q430.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 3 of 3127–117
- Q430.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 3127–116
- Q430.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 3127–115
- Q430.1Zach LaVine shooting foul127–114
- Q448.1Pistons defensive team rebound127–114
- Q449.1DeMar DeRozan misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot127–114
- Q41:03Dennis Schroder turnover127–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:58Ausar Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)SAC 100 – 99 DET · DET 39% → 52% +13DET 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q410:45Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three pointerSAC 103 – 99 DET · SAC 48% → 61% +13SAC 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q410:29Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three pointer (Ausar Thompson assists)SAC 103 – 102 DET · DET 39% → 52% +13DET 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q410:14Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three pointerSAC 106 – 102 DET · SAC 48% → 62% +13SAC 48% → 62%+13 pts
- Q48:28Zach LaVine makes 28-foot three pointerSAC 111 – 105 DET · SAC 59% → 73% +14SAC 59% → 73%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML SAC +160 / DET -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- DET: Elo 71.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -170
- SAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 117.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +36 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +156 Elo | DET 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 113.014th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 110.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 21–1715th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–44 | 43–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 11–15 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 39–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.