Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks, NBA forecast

Final/OTNY wins series 4-2

Away

Celtics

59-20

119–117

at

Home

Knicks

50-29

BOS 55%NY 45%

You didn't pick this one.

Madison Square Garden · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.

NY favored BOS favored118 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTNY50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics
Knicks

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game119–117
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–117
  • OT0.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–117
  • OT0.0Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointer119–117
  • OT5.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2119–114
  • OT5.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2118–114
  • OT5.1Jalen Brunson personal take foul117–114
  • OT7.1OG Anunoby makes driving layup (Jalen Brunson assists)117–114
  • OT12.1Knicks Full timeout117–112
  • OT12.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2117–112

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q41:29OG Anunoby makes two point shotBOS 102 – 103 NY · NY 37% → 61% +23
  2. Q450.0Mikal Bridges makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)BOS 102 – 105 NY · NY 65% → 88% +23
  3. Q43.1Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 107 – 107 NY · BOS <1% → 50% +50
  4. OT1:38Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot pullup jump shotBOS 112 – 112 NY · NY 28% → 49% +21
  5. OT40.1Kristaps Porzingis makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 115 – 112 NY · BOS 51% → 91% +40

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 55%

LeanHit
BOS 55%NY 45%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
BOS -2.5
ML BOS -135 / NY +115
Pre-line forecast
BOS 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -3
BOS 61%
Ratings vs. market
+6.0 pts
BOS: Elo 61.3%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
BOS -124
NY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 113.5 – 111.0 NY
Posted spread, posted total 224.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSNYWhy
Team rating17031585Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+21+23BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +80 EloBOS 61.3%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 57.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 57.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and New York Knicks compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatNY
8th of 30116.9Points scored116.19th of 30
3rd of 30107.6Points allowed111.79th of 30
3rd of 30+9.3Margin+4.48th of 30
2nd of 30118.6Offense rating116.75th of 30
5th of 30109.3Defense rating112.213th of 30
27th of 3097.8Pace98.626th of 30
1st of 309–1Last 107–36th of 30
1st of 3032–7Road vs home27–127th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

+21 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Knicks

+23 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsKnicks
1500155016001650170017501800NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSNY
Against the spread38–4038–40
Last 107–37–3
Favorite37–3833–30
Underdog1–25–10
Overs–unders35–4340–38
Overs–unders, last 104–63–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 7–1 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.