Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints16
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds13
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints20
- Payton PritchardAssists7
- Luke KornetRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–124
- Q411.1shot clock turnover90–124
- Q435.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound90–124
- Q436.1Bub Carrington misses driving floating jump shot90–124
- Q456.0Payton Pritchard makes driving layup90–124
- Q41:07Jordan Walsh defensive rebound90–122
- Q41:10AJ Johnson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot90–122
- Q41:23Payton Pritchard personal foul90–122
- Q41:40Neemias Queta makes dunk90–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:28Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)WSH 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 93% → 95% +2BOS 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q110:11Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)WSH 0 – 8 BOS · BOS 95% → 97% +1BOS 95% → 97%+1 pts
- Q19:54Justin Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Johnson assists)WSH 3 – 8 BOS · WSH 3% → 5% +1WSH 3% → 5%+1 pts
- Q16:05Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 12 – 18 BOS · WSH 3% → 5% +1WSH 3% → 5%+1 pts
- Q15:49Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)WSH 12 – 21 BOS · BOS 95% → 97% +1BOS 95% → 97%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -19.5
- ML WSH +1200 / BOS -3000
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -15
- BOS 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 91.5%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -1258
- WSH +1258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 103.5 – 123.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1258 | 1700 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −69 | WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −13, Richaun Holmes −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −56, Kristaps Porzingis −41 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +413 Elo | BOS 91.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 93.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 93.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.5 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 107.83rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.1 | Margin | +8.93rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 118.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.9 | Pace | 97.927th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 309–28 | Road vs home | 25–138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−3 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon left ankle sprain−13 Elo
- Richaun Holmes right shoulder contusion−6 Elo
Celtics
−69 Elo- Jayson Tatum left ankle sprain−56 Elo
- Kristaps Porzingis non-covid illness−41 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–44 | 37–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 36–38 |
| Underdog | 33–41 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 38–39 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–7 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.