Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints33
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds18
Wizards- Bub CarringtonPoints32
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Bub CarringtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–97
- Q49.1shot clock turnover109–97
- Q434.1Bub Carrington makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot109–97
- Q445.1Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shot109–94
- Q446.0Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound107–94
- Q447.0Tristan Vukcevic blocks Wendell Carter Jr. 's 4-foot layup107–94
- Q41:04Tristan Vukcevic turnover107–94
- Q41:04Tristan Vukcevic offensive foul107–94
- Q41:10Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)107–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:52Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 79 – 71 WSH · ORL 88% → 93% +5ORL 88% → 93%+5 pts
- Q350.1Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointerORL 79 – 76 WSH · WSH 10% → 16% +6WSH 10% → 16%+6 pts
- Q35.1Anthony Black makes two point shotORL 81 – 76 WSH · ORL 83% → 88% +5ORL 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q410:57Franz Wagner makes driving layupORL 83 – 76 WSH · ORL 88% → 92% +4ORL 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q410:28Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 86 – 76 WSH · ORL 92% → 96% +4ORL 92% → 96%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -15.5
- ML ORL -1800 / WSH +900
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7.5
- ORL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 77.7%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -947
- WSH +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 114.0 – 98.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1262 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +10 | +12 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +217 Elo | ORL 77.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 84.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 83.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 108.727th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.7 | Points allowed | 120.830th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −12.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 105.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 8–3030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+12 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon sprained left ankle−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–38 | 32–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 25–18 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 14–20 | 32–41 |
| Overs–unders | 32–45 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 7–0 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.