Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Ty JeromePoints24
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Tristan ThompsonRebounds12
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–114
- Q40.2Cavaliers offensive team rebound112–114
- Q40.2Jaylon Tyson misses 14-foot two point shot112–114
- Q49.1Cavaliers Full timeout112–114
- Q49.1Cavaliers Full timeout112–114
- Q49.1Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 2112–114
- Q49.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton112–113
- Q49.1Pacers offensive team rebound112–113
- Q49.1Aaron Nesmith misses free throw 1 of 2112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:13Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CLE 102 – 100 IND · IND 33% → 50% +17IND 33% → 50%+17 pts
- Q45:51Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three pointer (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 105 – 100 IND · CLE 51% → 68% +17CLE 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q45:33Jarace Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 105 – 103 IND · IND 31% → 48% +18IND 31% → 48%+18 pts
- Q43:40Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 107 – 110 IND · IND 59% → 78% +20IND 59% → 78%+20 pts
- Q41:34Craig Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 111 – 113 IND · CLE 6% → 24% +18CLE 6% → 24%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- IND -9.5
- ML CLE +340 / IND -450
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- IND: Elo 68.4%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- IND -360
- CLE +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.5 – 122.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1659 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −117 | +42 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +135 Elo | IND 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.3 | Points scored | 117.37th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.9 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 115.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–10 | Road vs home | 28–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–32 | 35–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–30 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–29 | 43–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.