Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Justin ChampagniePoints20
- Alex SarrAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–104
- Q417.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound98–104
- Q420.1Bub Carrington misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot98–104
- Q426.0Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 298–104
- Q426.0Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 298–103
- Q426.0Bub Carrington personal take foul98–102
- Q430.0JT Thor makes two point shot98–102
- Q430.0JT Thor offensive rebound96–102
- Q432.0Bub Carrington misses driving layup96–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:56Tyrese Haliburton makes 28-foot three pointer (Andrew Nembhard assists)WSH 84 – 84 IND · IND 53% → 69% +17IND 53% → 69%+17 pts
- Q44:06Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 88 – 89 IND · IND 53% → 73% +20IND 53% → 73%+20 pts
- Q43:00AJ Johnson makes driving layupWSH 92 – 90 IND · WSH 36% → 52% +16WSH 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q42:46Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)WSH 92 – 92 IND · IND 47% → 64% +17IND 47% → 64%+17 pts
- Q42:04Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shotWSH 92 – 94 IND · IND 62% → 79% +17IND 62% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- IND -18.5
- ML WSH +1200 / IND -3000
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -15.5
- IND 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- IND: Elo 92.3%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -1258
- WSH +1258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.0 – 127.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1255 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +43 | WSH: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −14, Richaun Holmes −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | IND crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +431 Elo | IND 92.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 93.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 93.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 117.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 115.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.4 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 115.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 309–29 | Road vs home | 27–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−33 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon left ankle sprain−14 Elo
- Richaun Holmes right shoulder contusion−4 Elo
Pacers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–45 | 35–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 33–42 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 43–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–5 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.