Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Trevelin QueenPoints25
- Anthony BlackAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds7
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints20
- Bennedict MathurinAssists3
- Tony BradleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–115
- Q43.0shot clock turnover129–115
- Q427.0Johnny Furphy makes free throw 1 of 1129–115
- Q427.0Tristan da Silva shooting foul129–114
- Q427.0Johnny Furphy makes dunk (Bennedict Mathurin assists)129–114
- Q431.0Anthony Black lost ball turnover (Johnny Furphy steals)129–112
- Q450.0Enrique Freeman makes two point shot129–112
- Q450.0Enrique Freeman offensive rebound129–110
- Q452.1RayJ Dennis misses 12-foot two point shot129–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:50Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three pointer (Thomas Bryant assists)ORL 18 – 17 IND · IND 51% → 58% +7IND 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:47Quenton Jackson makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Johnny Furphy assists)ORL 24 – 27 IND · IND 59% → 66% +7IND 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q211:24Jett Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 34 – 31 IND · ORL 41% → 48% +7ORL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q29:45Trevelin Queen makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 41 – 33 IND · ORL 53% → 61% +7ORL 53% → 61%+7 pts
- Q29:15Caleb Houstan makes 28-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 44 – 33 IND · ORL 61% → 68% +7ORL 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML ORL +145 / IND -170
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- IND: Elo 63.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -154
- ORL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.5 – 108.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −97 | −84 | ORL: Missing Wendell Carter Jr. −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −69, Pascal Siakam −47, Myles Turner −29 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +94 Elo | IND 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 117.37th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Points allowed | 114.917th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +2.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 115.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 29–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−97 Elo- Wendell Carter Jr. right hip contusion−12 Elo
Pacers
−84 Elo- Tyrese Haliburton lower back injury−69 Elo
- Pascal Siakam right elbow−47 Elo
- Myles Turner right knee injury−29 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–39 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–19 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 14–20 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–47 | 43–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–2 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.