Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Baylor ScheiermanPoints15
- Payton PritchardAssists10
- Neemias QuetaRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game76–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter76–96
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound76–96
- Q40.0Jett Howard misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot76–96
- Q421.1Jett Howard defensive rebound76–96
- Q426.2Drew Peterson misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot76–96
- Q433.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound76–96
- Q438.1Trevelin Queen misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot76–96
- Q446.1Trevelin Queen defensive rebound76–96
- Q451.1Miles Norris misses 25-foot three point jumper76–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:18Drew Peterson makes 24-foot three pointer (Jordan Walsh assists)BOS 15 – 12 ORL · BOS 29% → 35% +6BOS 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q12:30Anthony Black makes 23-foot three point jumperBOS 15 – 15 ORL · ORL 65% → 71% +6ORL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q12:17Baylor Scheierman makes 26-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)BOS 18 – 15 ORL · BOS 29% → 35% +6BOS 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q11:51Cole Anthony makes 22-foot three point jumper (Caleb Houstan assists)BOS 18 – 18 ORL · ORL 65% → 71% +6ORL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q142.1Gary Harris makes 22-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)BOS 20 – 24 ORL · ORL 73% → 78% +6ORL 73% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML BOS +260 / ORL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ORL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −23.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 50.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -275
- BOS +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 100.0 – 107.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 207.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1706 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ORL and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −155 | +16 | BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −38, Derrick White −35 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL 0 Elo | ORL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 105.329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 105.71st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.2 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 107.527th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 107.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–7 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−155 Elo- Jaylen Brown right knee injury−38 Elo
- Derrick White left ankle sprain−35 Elo
Magic
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–41 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–39 | 26–19 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–43 | 33–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.