Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds14
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints33
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–119
- Q424.0Trae Young makes driving layup112–119
- Q427.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound110–119
- Q430.0Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shot110–119
- Q456.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q456.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2109–119
- Q456.1Paolo Banchero shooting foul108–119
- Q458.0Franz Wagner bad pass (Onyeka Okongwu steals)108–119
- Q41:06(01:06) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:15Gary Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ATL 45 – 46 ORL · ORL 57% → 64% +7ORL 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q26:10Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)ATL 50 – 52 ORL · ORL 59% → 66% +7ORL 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q25:38Vit Krejci makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 53 – 53 ORL · ATL 31% → 39% +7ATL 31% → 39%+7 pts
- Q37:07Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)ATL 70 – 78 ORL · ORL 74% → 81% +7ORL 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q47:30Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)ATL 93 – 99 ORL · ATL 9% → 17% +8ATL 9% → 17%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ATL +170 / ORL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 60.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -180
- ATL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 110.5 – 116.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +12 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +74 Elo | ORL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 105.61st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 107.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 107.93rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.6 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–40 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 25–19 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–31 | 32–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.