Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints35
- Isaiah CollierAssists12
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds9
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–147
- Q419.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound134–147
- Q422.1Isaiah Collier misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot134–147
- Q428.1Dyson Daniels makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)134–147
- Q434.1Terance Mann defensive rebound134–145
- Q438.0Keyonte George misses 23-foot three point shot134–145
- Q442.0Johnny Juzang defensive rebound134–145
- Q445.1Caris LeVert misses driving floating jump shot134–145
- Q41:07Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2134–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:16Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)UTAH 4 – 8 ATL · ATL 87% → 90% +3ATL 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q29:00Keyonte George makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)UTAH 42 – 47 ATL · UTAH 8% → 11% +3UTAH 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q28:40Vit Krejci makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)UTAH 42 – 50 ATL · ATL 89% → 92% +3ATL 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q410:29Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)UTAH 110 – 122 ATL · ATL 94% → 97% +3ATL 94% → 97%+3 pts
- Q49:18Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot layup (Trae Young assists)UTAH 114 – 124 ATL · ATL 92% → 95% +3ATL 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -13.5
- ML UTAH +600 / ATL -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6
- ATL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 71.9%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -636
- UTAH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.0 – 129.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1319 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | +10 | UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +163 Elo | ATL 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.4 | Points scored | 117.66th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 119.627th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 104.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 19–1919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−33 Elo- Walker Kessler concussion protocol−13 Elo
Hawks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–39 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 37–37 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–33 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.