Washington Wizards at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints28
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Tristan VukcevicRebounds11
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points41
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)119–118
- Q40.1Bub Carrington makes 1-foot two point shot119–118
- Q44.1Josh Christopher back court turnover117–118
- Q45.0Heat Full timeout117–118
- Q45.0Justin Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)117–118
- Q48.1Wizards Full timeout114–118
- Q48.1Josh Christopher makes free throw 2 of 2114–118
- Q48.1Josh Christopher makes free throw 1 of 2114–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:05Josh Christopher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)WSH 104 – 101 MIA · MIA 29% → 44% +15MIA 29% → 44%+15 pts
- Q46:11Justin Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Colby Jones assists)WSH 109 – 103 MIA · WSH 58% → 74% +16WSH 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q41:30Keshad Johnson makes two point shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)WSH 114 – 113 MIA · MIA 22% → 43% +21MIA 22% → 43%+21 pts
- Q425.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 114 – 115 MIA · MIA 52% → 73% +21MIA 52% → 73%+21 pts
- Q40.1Bub Carrington makes 1-foot two point shotWSH 119 – 118 MIA · WSH 0% → 100% +100WSH 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML WSH +280 / MIA -360
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -10.5
- MIA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 84.9%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -297
- WSH +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 103.5 – 112.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1237 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | −58 | WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −8, Anthony Gill −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −43, Bam Adebayo −38, Andrew Wiggins −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone and MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +300 Elo | MIA 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 86.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 86.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 110.524th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 109.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.6 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.7 | Pace | 97.330th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–31 | Road vs home | 19–2121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−48 Elo- Richaun Holmes right shoulder contusion−8 Elo
- Anthony Gill right hamstring strain−3 Elo
Heat
−58 Elo- Tyler Herro rest−43 Elo
- Bam Adebayo rest−38 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins right hamstring−11 Elo
- Isaiah Stevens right foot−5 Elo
- Alec Burks lower back discomfort−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–47 | 38–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 34–44 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–6 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.