Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jeff Dowtin Jr.Points30
- Quentin GrimesAssists7
- Colin CastletonRebounds14
Wizards- Tristan VukcevicPoints24
- Bub CarringtonAssists6
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–103
- Q422.0shot clock turnover122–103
- Q446.076ers defensive team rebound122–103
- Q448.0Justin Champagnie misses 26-foot three point jumper122–103
- Q455.1Adem Bona makes free throw 1 of 1122–103
- Q455.1Justin Champagnie shooting foul121–103
- Q455.1Adem Bona makes 2-foot dunk (Jared Butler assists)121–103
- Q41:09Colin Castleton defensive rebound119–103
- Q41:11Tristan Vukcevic misses free throw 2 of 2119–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:34Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 64 – 62 WSH · PHI 51% → 61% +10PHI 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q36:09Kyshawn George makes 31-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)PHI 66 – 65 WSH · WSH 33% → 42% +10WSH 33% → 42%+10 pts
- Q33:46Bub Carrington makes 31-foot three pointerPHI 73 – 72 WSH · WSH 32% → 42% +10WSH 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q32:41Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 78 – 74 WSH · PHI 58% → 68% +11PHI 58% → 68%+11 pts
- Q32:07Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 81 – 76 WSH · PHI 61% → 72% +10PHI 61% → 72%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -145 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 113.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1314 | 1254 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −42 | −36 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −41, Andre Drummond −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −4, Anthony Gill −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +59 Elo | PHI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 108.227th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 120.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −12.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 105.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 117.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.74th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 8–3130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−42 Elo- Tyrese Maxey right finger−41 Elo
- Andre Drummond left toe−8 Elo
Wizards
−36 Elo- Richaun Holmes right shoulder contusion−4 Elo
- Anthony Gill right hamstring−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–52 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 21–33 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders | 47–32 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.