Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists20
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
76ers- Adem BonaPoints28
- Quentin GrimesAssists10
- Justin EdwardsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–113
- Q44.1Phillip Wheeler defensive rebound126–113
- Q44.1Adem Bona blocks Chris Livingston's two point shot126–113
- Q44.1Chris Livingston offensive rebound126–113
- Q49.0Chris Livingston misses driving layup126–113
- Q423.1Chris Livingston defensive rebound126–113
- Q426.0Phillip Wheeler misses 25-foot three point jumper126–113
- Q432.0Jalen Hood-Schifino defensive rebound126–113
- Q436.0Tyler Smith misses 24-foot three point jumper126–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q118.2AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 25 – 39 PHI · MIL 41% → 48% +7MIL 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:28AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 28 – 39 PHI · MIL 48% → 55% +7MIL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q35:06Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 80 – 78 PHI · MIL 68% → 76% +9MIL 68% → 76%+9 pts
- Q32:31Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Colin Castleton assists)MIL 84 – 85 PHI · PHI 24% → 34% +10PHI 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:21AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)MIL 89 – 85 PHI · MIL 72% → 81% +9MIL 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -11.5
- ML MIL -650 / PHI +425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -8.5
- MIL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 79.4%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -455
- PHI +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 119.5 – 108.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −86 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +235 Elo | MIL 79.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 80.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 109.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 116.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 18th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 12–2526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−86 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–37 | 26–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 26–26 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 20–31 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–0 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.