Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds19
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints28
- Jared ButlerAssists8
- Adem BonaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q42.0Anthony Edwards defensive rebound114–109
- Q45.0Guerschon Yabusele misses 23-foot three point jumper114–109
- Q47.1Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Rudy Gobert114–109
- Q47.176ers Full timeout114–109
- Q47.1Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point shot114–109
- Q414.1Timberwolves Full timeout111–109
- Q414.1(00:14.5) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [76ers] retain their timeout111–109
- Q414.176ers Full timeout111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:05Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Lonnie Walker IV assists)MIN 85 – 87 PHI · PHI 24% → 35% +11PHI 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q49:09Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 90 – 87 PHI · MIN 71% → 82% +11MIN 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q42:12Quentin Grimes makes 22-foot three pointerMIN 104 – 101 PHI · PHI 4% → 16% +12PHI 4% → 16%+12 pts
- Q41:22Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)MIN 107 – 103 PHI · MIN 70% → 93% +23MIN 70% → 93%+23 pts
- Q431.2Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 111 – 109 PHI · PHI <1% → 13% +12PHI <1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -16.5
- ML MIN -1600 / PHI +800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -14.5
- MIN 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 91.2%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -847
- PHI +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.5 – 104.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −87 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −11, Kelly Oubre Jr. −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +407 Elo | MIN 91.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 91.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 91.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 109.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 116.226th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 12–2626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−87 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−11 Elo
- Kelly Oubre Jr. sprained right knee−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–40 | 26–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 24–33 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 20–32 |
| Overs–unders | 44–33 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.