Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints18
- Nic ClaxtonAssists5
- Tosan EvbuomwanRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–90
- Q419.2Bones Hyland defensive rebound105–90
- Q423.1Tosan Evbuomwan misses 25-foot three point jumper105–90
- Q425.0Maxwell Lewis offensive rebound105–90
- Q429.0Dariq Whitehead misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot105–90
- Q437.1Rob Dillingham bad pass (Drew Timme steals)105–90
- Q447.1Luka Garza defensive rebound105–90
- Q451.0Tyson Etienne misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot105–90
- Q459.1Maxwell Lewis defensive rebound105–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:01Keon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)MIN 22 – 24 BKN · BKN 14% → 18% +5BKN 14% → 18%+5 pts
- Q33:24Dariq Whitehead makes 23-foot three point shot (Maxwell Lewis assists)MIN 67 – 60 BKN · BKN 5% → 9% +4BKN 5% → 9%+4 pts
- Q31:06Dariq Whitehead makes 34-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)MIN 74 – 67 BKN · BKN 5% → 9% +4BKN 5% → 9%+4 pts
- Q348.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 77 – 67 BKN · MIN 91% → 95% +4MIN 91% → 95%+4 pts
- Q410:18Trendon Watford makes 4-foot hook shotMIN 77 – 71 BKN · BKN 7% → 11% +4BKN 7% → 11%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -14.5
- ML MIN -1400 / BKN +750
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 82.0%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -793
- BKN +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.0 – 101.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1352 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +8 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −12 | MIN crossed 2 time zones and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +264 Elo | MIN 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 79.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 105.229th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 107.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 113.821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 97.728th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 11–2528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–40 | 42–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders | 44–32 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.