Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints29
- Quentin GrimesAssists6
- Adem BonaRebounds11
Heat- Duncan RobinsonPoints21
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Kel'el WareRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–117
- Q45.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 2 of 2105–117
- Q45.076ers offensive team rebound104–117
- Q45.0Ricky Council IV misses free throw 1 of 2104–117
- Q45.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul104–117
- Q47.1Keshad Johnson personal foul104–117
- Q418.1Alex Reese defensive rebound104–117
- Q418.1Josh Christopher misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–117
- Q436.1Alex Reese makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Hood-Schifino assists)104–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:17Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Adem Bona assists)PHI 77 – 73 MIA · PHI 33% → 43% +10PHI 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q31:19Kyle Lowry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Colin Castleton assists)PHI 83 – 81 MIA · PHI 29% → 40% +11PHI 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q49:36Lonnie Walker IV makes 23-foot three point shot (Ricky Council IV assists)PHI 86 – 85 MIA · PHI 27% → 39% +13PHI 27% → 39%+13 pts
- Q48:58Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)PHI 86 – 88 MIA · MIA 60% → 73% +13MIA 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q47:46Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHI 88 – 93 MIA · MIA 73% → 84% +11MIA 73% → 84%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -11.5
- ML PHI +400 / MIA -525
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9
- MIA 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 80.6%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -420
- PHI +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | −36 | PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −31, Andrew Wiggins −9 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +248 Elo | MIA 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 109.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 109.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 111.521st of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–28 | Road vs home | 18–2122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−62 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained toe−10 Elo
Heat
−36 Elo- Bam Adebayo back spasms−31 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins right hamstring−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–51 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 21–32 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–32 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–5 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.