Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints31
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Kyle AndersonRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game121–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime121–115
- OT0.0Heat offensive team rebound121–115
- OT0.1Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point jumper121–115
- OT2.1Taurean Prince personal foul121–115
- OT4.0Taurean Prince enters the game for Brook Lopez121–115
- OT4.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Pelle Larsson121–115
- OT4.0Heat Full timeout121–115
- OT4.0Brook Lopez makes 1-foot dunk (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)121–115
- OT9.1Brook Lopez enters the game for Taurean Prince119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:09Alec Burks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIL 96 – 100 MIA · MIA 57% → 74% +17MIA 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q42:08Kevin Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 105 – 107 MIA · MIL 11% → 31% +20MIL 11% → 31%+20 pts
- Q41:04Brook Lopez makes dunk (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 109 – 109 MIA · MIL 24% → 50% +26MIL 24% → 50%+26 pts
- Q438.2Brook Lopez makes layup (AJ Green assists)MIL 111 – 111 MIA · MIL 18% → 50% +32MIL 18% → 50%+32 pts
- OT1:36Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 117 – 115 MIA · MIL 50% → 71% +22MIL 50% → 71%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -0.5
- ML MIL -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 45.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.5 – 105.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | −42 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −37, Andrew Wiggins −9, Isaiah Stevens −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 111.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.6 | Pace | 97.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 18–2022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−42 Elo- Tyler Herro right thigh contusion−37 Elo
- Andrew Wiggins right hamstring−9 Elo
- Isaiah Stevens right foot−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–37 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 27–26 | 19–21 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 39–38 | 39–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.