Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Justin ChampagniePoints22
- Bub CarringtonAssists11
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds14
Bulls- Julian PhillipsPoints23
- Nikola VucevicAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–119
- Q43.1shot clock turnover89–119
- Q427.1shot clock turnover89–119
- Q428.0Wizards offensive team rebound89–119
- Q428.0Tristan Vukcevic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot89–119
- Q449.1JT Thor defensive rebound89–119
- Q451.1Zach Collins misses 23-foot three point jumper89–119
- Q458.0Jevon Carter defensive rebound89–119
- Q41:01Tristan Vukcevic misses 25-foot three point jumper89–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:04Justin Champagnie makes 26-foot three pointer (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 14 – 12 CHI · WSH 15% → 19% +4WSH 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q29:47Tristan Vukcevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 32 – 31 CHI · WSH 16% → 21% +5WSH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q29:23Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three pointer (Zach Collins assists)WSH 32 – 34 CHI · CHI 79% → 84% +5CHI 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q28:58Coby White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)WSH 32 – 37 CHI · CHI 84% → 88% +4CHI 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q28:10Jevon Carter makes 23-foot three point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)WSH 34 – 40 CHI · CHI 85% → 89% +4CHI 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -13.5
- ML WSH +550 / CHI -900
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -13
- CHI 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 89.1%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -585
- WSH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 125.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1241 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +4 | WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −6, Anthony Gill −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −33 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +364 Elo | CHI 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 87.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 87.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 117.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 120.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.4 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.7 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 17–2324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−36 Elo- Richaun Holmes right shoulder contusion−6 Elo
- Anthony Gill right hamstring strain−3 Elo
Bulls
+4 Elo- Josh Giddey injury/illness−33 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–46 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 34–43 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 42–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.