Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Kyle AndersonAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Pelicans- Jamal CainPoints25
- Elfrid PaytonAssists13
- Elfrid PaytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game153–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter153–104
- Q410.1Jamal Cain makes free throw 2 of 2153–104
- Q410.1Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 2153–103
- Q410.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul153–102
- Q412.1Jamal Cain defensive rebound153–102
- Q415.1Josh Christopher misses driving layup153–102
- Q436.1Terry Rozier defensive rebound153–102
- Q440.0Antonio Reeves misses 23-foot three point jumper153–102
- Q448.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup153–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 3 – 0 NO · MIA 86% → 89% +3MIA 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q111:01Tyler Herro makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 6 – 0 NO · MIA 89% → 92% +3MIA 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q26:37Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)MIA 52 – 44 NO · MIA 89% → 92% +3MIA 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q26:00Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)MIA 55 – 46 NO · MIA 90% → 93% +3MIA 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q24:46Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot three point shot (Jamal Cain assists)MIA 55 – 49 NO · NO 7% → 10% +3NO 7% → 10%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -14.5
- ML MIA -1000 / NO +600
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8
- MIA 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 78.7%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -636
- NO +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.5 – 100.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | −65 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Karlo Matkovic −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +227 Elo | MIA 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 110.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 118.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 117.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.2 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 14–2525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−65 Elo- Karlo Matkovic left hamstring soreness−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–43 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders | 42–38 | 44–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.