New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Lester QuinonesPoints21
- Elfrid PaytonAssists15
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–136
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)111–136
- Q40.0Andre Jackson Jr. makes dunk111–136
- Q412.1Jamal Cain makes free throw 1 of 1111–134
- Q412.1Chris Livingston shooting foul110–134
- Q412.1Jamal Cain makes driving layup (Lester Quinones assists)110–134
- Q423.0shot clock turnover108–134
- Q447.0Antonio Reeves makes free throw 2 of 2108–134
- Q447.0Antonio Reeves makes free throw 1 of 2107–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:03Antonio Reeves makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lester Quinones assists)NO 26 – 17 MIL · NO 23% → 29% +6NO 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q211:50Karlo Matkovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 29 – 21 MIL · NO 22% → 27% +6NO 22% → 27%+6 pts
- Q211:34Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)NO 29 – 24 MIL · MIL 72% → 78% +6MIL 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q28:25Lester Quinones makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 41 – 33 MIL · NO 24% → 30% +6NO 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:15Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)NO 41 – 36 MIL · MIL 70% → 76% +6MIL 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -16.5
- ML NO +800 / MIL -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -11
- MIL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 85.7%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -847
- NO +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 103.5 – 120.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +14 | NO: Missing Jose Alvarado −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +311 Elo | MIL 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 84.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 114.612th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 113.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 111.411th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–33 | Road vs home | 25–149th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−49 Elo- Jose Alvarado sore right calf−2 Elo
Bucks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–45 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 27–27 |
| Underdog | 25–36 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–36 | 40–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.