New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jose AlvaradoPoints27
- Elfrid PaytonAssists12
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Jaxson HayesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–124
- Q413.1Gabe Vincent out of bounds lost ball turnover108–124
- Q435.0Elfrid Payton bad pass (Gabe Vincent steals)108–124
- Q445.0Gabe Vincent makes driving layup108–124
- Q41:03Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three point shot (Elfrid Payton assists)108–122
- Q41:08Dalton Knecht bad pass (Jamal Cain steals)105–122
- Q41:19Gabe Vincent defensive rebound105–122
- Q41:22Lester Quinones misses 25-foot three point shot105–122
- Q41:27Trey Jemison III lost ball turnover (Karlo Matkovic steals)105–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:06Jamal Cain makes 24-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)NO 37 – 31 LAL · NO 18% → 23% +5NO 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q29:37LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)NO 37 – 35 LAL · LAL 78% → 83% +5LAL 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q28:45Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)NO 42 – 37 LAL · NO 17% → 22% +5NO 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q38:29Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point shot (Keion Brooks Jr. assists)NO 65 – 67 LAL · NO 11% → 16% +5NO 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q35:45Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)NO 73 – 77 LAL · LAL 81% → 87% +6LAL 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -15.5
- ML NO +900 / LAL -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -10.5
- LAL 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 84.9%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- LAL -947
- NO +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 103.5 – 119.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −77 | +47 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +299 Elo | LAL 84.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 85.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 85.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 113.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +0.714th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 113.412th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 112.714th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–31 | Road vs home | 29–103rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–43 | 43–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 24–34 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–5 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.