New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jose AlvaradoPoints17
- Jose AlvaradoAssists10
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- James HardenAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–114
- Q46.1shot clock turnover98–114
- Q431.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 2-foot layup (Elfrid Payton assists)98–114
- Q441.2Drew Eubanks makes 2-foot dunk (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)96–114
- Q448.0Jamal Cain makes dunk (Elfrid Payton assists)96–112
- Q451.1Elfrid Payton defensive rebound94–112
- Q454.1Cam Christie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot94–112
- Q41:06Kobe Brown defensive rebound94–112
- Q41:10Keion Brooks Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper94–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:39Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)NO 4 – 3 LAC · LAC 86% → 90% +3LAC 86% → 90%+3 pts
- Q16:55Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)NO 8 – 8 LAC · LAC 87% → 90% +3LAC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q38:58Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)NO 57 – 65 LAC · LAC 90% → 94% +3LAC 90% → 94%+3 pts
- Q35:36Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point shot (James Harden assists)NO 64 – 75 LAC · LAC 93% → 96% +3LAC 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q32:44Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)NO 70 – 80 LAC · LAC 92% → 95% +3LAC 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -18.5
- ML NO +1000 / LAC -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -14.5
- LAC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 90.9%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -1048
- NO +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 100.0 – 118.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −75 | +75 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +400 Elo | LAC 90.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 90.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 90.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 112.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 307–30 | Road vs home | 25–116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–43 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 25–17 |
| Underdog | 23–34 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 36–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–2 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.