New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Karlo MatkovicPoints17
- Elfrid PaytonAssists10
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds9
Nets- Trendon WatfordPoints22
- Reece BeekmanAssists10
- Drew TimmeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–119
- Q45.1Jamal Cain makes 1-foot dunk114–119
- Q47.1Tosan Evbuomwan lost ball turnover (Jamal Cain steals)112–119
- Q419.1Tosan Evbuomwan defensive rebound112–119
- Q422.0Antonio Reeves misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot112–119
- Q423.1Antonio Reeves offensive rebound112–119
- Q427.1Elfrid Payton misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot112–119
- Q435.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)112–119
- Q453.1Antonio Reeves makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Elfrid Payton assists)112–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q234.1Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three pointerNO 53 – 54 BKN · NO 38% → 46% +9NO 38% → 46%+9 pts
- Q310:54Antonio Reeves makes 24-foot three point shot (Bruce Brown assists)NO 58 – 54 BKN · NO 52% → 61% +9NO 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q39:57Jalen Wilson makes 25-foot three point shot (Reece Beekman assists)NO 58 – 59 BKN · BKN 45% → 54% +9BKN 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q38:01Trendon Watford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)NO 60 – 68 BKN · BKN 66% → 75% +8BKN 66% → 75%+8 pts
- Q35:31Tyson Etienne makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)NO 69 – 78 BKN · BKN 70% → 79% +8BKN 70% → 79%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML NO -105 / BKN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2.5
- BKN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- BKN: Elo 59.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BKN -104
- NO +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −76 | −34 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +64 Elo | BKN 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 105.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 111.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −6.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 106.828th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–32 | Road vs home | 11–2728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–44 | 42–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 25–35 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–36 | 35–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.