Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jonathan MogboPoints17
- Jamal SheadAssists12
- Jonathan MogboRebounds11
Nets- Reece BeekmanPoints14
- Reece BeekmanAssists5
- Keon JohnsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–109
- Q415.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)120–109
- Q425.0A.J. Lawson makes driving layup120–106
- Q440.0Dariq Whitehead makes driving layup (Reece Beekman assists)118–106
- Q452.2Ochai Agbaji out of bounds bad pass turnover118–104
- Q41:10Dariq Whitehead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Maxwell Lewis assists)118–104
- Q41:14Reece Beekman defensive rebound118–101
- Q41:19Cole Swider misses 22-foot three point jumper118–101
- Q41:34Cole Swider defensive rebound118–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:54Cole Swider makes 24-foot three pointer (Orlando Robinson assists)TOR 17 – 17 BKN · TOR 48% → 55% +7TOR 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q27:09Jamison Battle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 38 – 35 BKN · TOR 54% → 62% +8TOR 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q25:33Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 43 – 37 BKN · TOR 62% → 69% +7TOR 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q49:39Keon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyson Etienne assists)TOR 87 – 79 BKN · BKN 9% → 16% +7BKN 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q49:26Cole Swider makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jared Rhoden assists)TOR 90 – 79 BKN · TOR 84% → 91% +7TOR 84% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML TOR -135 / BKN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BKN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.0 – 107.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1348 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | −55 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +14 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 105.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 111.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.7 | Margin | −6.726th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 106.928th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 113.819th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 11–2628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–31 | 42–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 38–40 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.