Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Gary Trent Jr.Points29
- Ryan RollinsAssists10
- Brook LopezRebounds12
Pelicans- Antonio ReevesPoints23
- Elfrid PaytonAssists10
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–107
- Q40.0Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound111–107
- Q42.1Antonio Reeves misses 24-foot three point jumper111–107
- Q43.0Taurean Prince enters the game for Brook Lopez111–107
- Q43.0Lester Quinones enters the game for Karlo Matkovic111–107
- Q43.0Pelicans Full timeout111–107
- Q43.0Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2111–107
- Q43.0Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Lester Quinones110–107
- Q43.0Bucks offensive team rebound110–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:30AJ Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 74 – 74 NO · MIL 49% → 60% +11MIL 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q411:17Karlo Matkovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)MIL 81 – 81 NO · NO 30% → 42% +12NO 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q49:51Antonio Reeves makes 28-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)MIL 85 – 86 NO · NO 33% → 47% +13NO 33% → 47%+13 pts
- Q49:29Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 88 – 86 NO · MIL 53% → 67% +14MIL 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q48:07Antonio Reeves makes 23-foot three point shot (Elfrid Payton assists)MIL 88 – 91 NO · NO 43% → 58% +15NO 43% → 58%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -230 / NO +190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.4%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -202
- NO +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 106.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −136 | −96 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Kelly Olynyk −12, Jose Alvarado −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +96 Elo | MIL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 110.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 118.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 108.725th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 117.429th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 14–2425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−136 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−96 Elo- Kelly Olynyk rest−12 Elo
- Jose Alvarado calf soreness−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–37 | 33–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–26 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 24–35 |
| Overs–unders | 40–38 | 42–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.