Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints23
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–110
- Q41.1Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound103–110
- Q41.1Mike Conley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–110
- Q43.0Naz Reid offensive rebound103–110
- Q46.0Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–110
- Q411.1AJ Green personal foul103–110
- Q413.1Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert103–110
- Q413.1Timberwolves Full timeout103–110
- Q413.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2103–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:40Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIN 95 – 92 MIL · MIL 15% → 28% +13MIL 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q43:35AJ Green makes 23-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIN 97 – 97 MIL · MIL 25% → 46% +21MIL 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q43:03Kevin Porter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIN 98 – 99 MIL · MIL 38% → 54% +16MIL 38% → 54%+16 pts
- Q42:39Kevin Porter Jr. makes 2-foot dunkMIN 98 – 101 MIL · MIL 55% → 72% +17MIL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- Q41:35Donte DiVincenzo makes 29-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 101 – 105 MIL · MIN 3% → 14% +12MIN 3% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MIN -220 / MIL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.0%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -192
- MIL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.5 – 108.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +16 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +64 Elo | MIN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 114.712th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 112.513th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +2.212th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 113.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 111.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 24–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–41 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 27–27 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.