Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints24
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–121
- Q45.1shot clock turnover100–121
- Q429.1Javonte Green defensive rebound100–121
- Q431.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper100–121
- Q441.2Duncan Robinson defensive rebound100–121
- Q442.1Craig Porter Jr. misses layup100–121
- Q454.0Craig Porter Jr. offensive rebound100–121
- Q456.1Jaylon Tyson misses 27-foot three point jumper100–121
- Q41:09Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound100–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:36Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three pointerMIA 18 – 16 CLE · MIA 16% → 21% +4MIA 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q349.1Haywood Highsmith makes 24-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 79 – 85 CLE · MIA 8% → 13% +5MIA 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q48:49Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)MIA 85 – 95 CLE · CLE 90% → 95% +5CLE 90% → 95%+5 pts
- Q48:32Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 88 – 95 CLE · MIA 5% → 10% +5MIA 5% → 10%+5 pts
- Q47:43Ty Jerome makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)MIA 88 – 98 CLE · CLE 91% → 96% +5CLE 91% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML MIA +500 / CLE -800
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.8%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -533
- MIA +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 102.0 – 114.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −9 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +171 Elo | CLE 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 34–72nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–44 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 43–30 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–3 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.