Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints33
- Bam AdebayoAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–121
- Q43.0Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2112–121
- Q43.0Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2112–120
- Q43.0Davion Mitchell personal take foul112–119
- Q43.2Nikola Jovic makes 5-foot two point shot112–119
- Q410.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q410.1Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2110–118
- Q410.1Bam Adebayo personal take foul110–117
- Q411.0Davion Mitchell makes driving layup110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:26Tyler Herro makes two point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 99 – 101 CLE · MIA 16% → 26% +10MIA 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q44:02Donovan Mitchell makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Max Strus assists)MIA 99 – 103 CLE · CLE 74% → 84% +10CLE 74% → 84%+10 pts
- Q43:41Bam Adebayo makes 4-foot alley oop dunk shot (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 101 – 103 CLE · MIA 15% → 26% +11MIA 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q43:11Tyler Herro makes 19-foot pullup jump shotMIA 103 – 105 CLE · MIA 14% → 26% +11MIA 14% → 26%+11 pts
- Q42:58Donovan Mitchell makes 13-foot step back jumpshotMIA 103 – 107 CLE · CLE 75% → 86% +11CLE 75% → 86%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML MIA +475 / CLE -750
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7.5
- CLE 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 77.1%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -507
- MIA +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 100.5 – 113.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1662 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +14 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +211 Elo | CLE 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 121.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +9.52nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 34–72nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–45 | 50–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 44–30 |
| Underdog | 17–21 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 45–38 | 52–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–4 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 5MIA 107 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 29CLE 126 @ MIA 106Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Dec 8CLE 113 @ MIA 122Picked CLE 57%Miss
- Mar 24CLE 84 @ MIA 121Picked MIA 57%Hit
- Mar 20MIA 107 @ CLE 104Picked CLE 58%Miss
- Dec 8CLE 111 @ MIA 99Picked MIA 57%Miss
- Nov 22MIA 129 @ CLE 96Picked CLE 55%Miss