Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 57% to 62% over 10 updates; the betting line was first on file Thursday, November 5 at 12:20 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Davion MitchellPoints22
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Yaxel LendeborgRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–120
- Q414.3Graham Ike defensive rebound100–120
- Q414.3Brandon Williams blocks Dru Smith 's 25-foot three point jumper100–120
- Q433.4Heat defensive team rebound100–120
- Q433.4Charles Bassey misses 26-foot three point jumper100–120
- Q444.9Charles Bassey defensive rebound100–120
- Q444.9Ryan Conwell misses 26-foot three point jumper100–120
- Q458.0Brandon Williams makes 7-foot two point shot100–120
- Q41:09Dru Smith enters the game for Pelle Larsson100–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:54Klay Thompson makes 29-foot three pointerMIA 49 – 42 GS · MIA 51% → 59% +8MIA 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q23:41Will Richard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandon Williams assists)MIA 49 – 45 GS · GS 40% → 49% +8GS 40% → 49%+8 pts
- Q38:20Stephen Curry makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Will Richard assists)MIA 61 – 64 GS · GS 58% → 67% +9GS 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q37:57Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 64 – 64 GS · MIA 33% → 42% +9MIA 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:55Stephen Curry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)MIA 64 – 69 GS · GS 64% → 73% +9GS 64% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML MIA +155 / GS -185
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- GS: Elo 67.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.0 – 121.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +29 | +7 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39, Kristaps Porzingis −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +123 Elo | GS 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 117.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 114.619th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.9 | Margin | +2.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 113.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
| 11th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 15338th of 30 |
| 20th of 301461 | Elo rating | 152613th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 GS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.