LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
GS went from 63% to 62% over 3 updates, with no betting line yet. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Rui HachimuraPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds8
Warriors- Yaxel LendeborgPoints37
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists8
- Charles BasseyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q412.5Brandon Williams offensive rebound112–124
- Q412.5De'Anthony Melton misses 31-foot three point jumper112–124
- Q433.3Warriors Full timeout112–124
- Q433.3Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2112–124
- Q433.3Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 2111–124
- Q433.3Georges Niang shooting foul110–124
- Q439.5De'Anthony Melton makes 29-foot three pointer110–124
- Q41:02De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound110–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:28Brandon Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)LAC 37 – 34 GS · GS 45% → 53% +7GS 45% → 53%+7 pts
- Q23:21De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)LAC 45 – 50 GS · GS 64% → 72% +7GS 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q21:08Darius Garland makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 52 – 55 GS · LAC 26% → 33% +7LAC 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q254.2Yaxel Lendeborg makes 27-foot three pointerLAC 52 – 58 GS · GS 67% → 74% +7GS 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q411:09Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAC 87 – 97 GS · GS 82% → 89% +7GS 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. No line is posted yet, so this is the pre-line forecast: Elo blended with ratings learned from past lines. It switches to the line once one is posted.
Warriors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 62%
- Fair odds
- GS -162
- LAC +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.1 – 114.7 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −81 | −40 | LAC: Missing Brandon Ingram −15, Yanic Konan Niederhauser −4, Jordan Miller −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Missing Stephen Curry −59, Jimmy Butler III −52, Kristaps Porzingis −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the injury report) |
| Elo ratings | GS +82 Elo | GS 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 116.712th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 115.318th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−6.4 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 17th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301548 | Opponent Elo | 15425th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  LAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–40 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 10–2 GS in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Apr 12GS 110 @ LAC 115Picked LAC 59%Hit
- Mar 2LAC 114 @ GS 101Picked LAC 50%Hit
- Jan 5GS 102 @ LAC 103Picked GS 59%Miss
- Oct 28LAC 79 @ GS 98Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Apr 13LAC 124 @ GS 119Picked GS 60%Miss
- Dec 27GS 92 @ LAC 102Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Nov 18GS 99 @ LAC 102Picked GS 65%Miss
- Oct 27LAC 112 @ GS 104Picked GS 76%Miss