Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Draymond GreenAssists12
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds6
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–103
- Q40.1Warriors offensive team rebound102–103
- Q43.5Jimmy Butler III misses 16-foot two point shot102–103
- Q46.9Warriors Full timeout102–103
- Q46.9Warriors defensive team rebound102–103
- Q49.5Kawhi Leonard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot102–103
- Q414.0Clippers Full timeout102–103
- Q432.6Draymond Green makes driving layup (Jimmy Butler III assists)102–103
- Q442.7Draymond Green enters the game for Al Horford100–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:21John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)GS 74 – 81 LAC · LAC 66% → 78% +13LAC 66% → 78%+13 pts
- Q42:52Kris Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)GS 90 – 97 LAC · LAC 79% → 92% +14LAC 79% → 92%+14 pts
- Q41:05Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 100 – 101 LAC · GS 9% → 38% +29GS 9% → 38%+29 pts
- Q442.7Kris Dunn makes free throw 1 of 2GS 100 – 102 LAC · LAC 66% → 80% +14LAC 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q432.6Draymond Green makes driving layup (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 102 – 103 LAC · GS 7% → 32% +25GS 7% → 32%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML GS -162 / LAC +136
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- GS: Elo 56.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -146
- LAC +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.0 – 109.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −29 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +47 Elo | GS 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 112.427th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 114.610th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 116.426th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.7 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 8–920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15215th of 30 |
| 9th of 301561 | Elo rating | 152313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–20 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–15 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–7 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Oct 28LAC 79 @ GS 98Picked LAC 51%Miss
- Apr 13LAC 124 @ GS 119Picked GS 60%Miss
- Dec 27GS 92 @ LAC 102Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Nov 18GS 99 @ LAC 102Picked GS 65%Miss
- Oct 27LAC 112 @ GS 104Picked GS 76%Miss
- Feb 14LAC 130 @ GS 125Picked GS 55%Miss
- Dec 14GS 113 @ LAC 121Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Dec 2GS 112 @ LAC 113Picked LAC 57%Hit