Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints50
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Jordan WalshRebounds13
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints22
- James HardenAssists12
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–115
- Q420.6Kobe Sanders bad pass
turnover (Josh Minott steals)146–115
- Q428.6Payton Pritchard makes driving layup146–115
- Q451.4Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2144–115
- Q451.4Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 2144–114
- Q451.4Baylor Scheierman shooting foul144–113
- Q41:07Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound144–113
- Q41:10Payton Pritchard misses 9-foot two point shot144–113
- Q41:19Josh Minott offensive rebound144–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:15Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 60 – 45 LAC · BOS 70% → 82% +13BOS 70% → 82%+13 pts
- Q24:02Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2BOS 60 – 50 LAC · LAC 18% → 28% +10LAC 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q35:28Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)BOS 87 – 82 LAC · LAC 27% → 36% +9LAC 27% → 36%+9 pts
- Q35:10Jaylen Brown makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 90 – 82 LAC · BOS 64% → 73% +9BOS 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q33:45Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)BOS 96 – 90 LAC · LAC 23% → 32% +9LAC 23% → 32%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML BOS +114 / LAC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2
- LAC 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 43.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 109.0 – 110.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +19 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +49 Elo | BOS 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 112.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 113.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −1.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 113.911th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 97.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301639 | Elo rating | 154212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.