Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Nique CliffordPoints18
- Russell WestbrookAssists4
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds12
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints33
- Kawhi LeonardAssists5
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–131
- Q414.1Devin Carter makes 2-foot driving dunk90–131
- Q420.0Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound88–131
- Q422.9Kobe Sanders misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot88–131
- Q439.6Kobe Sanders defensive rebound88–131
- Q444.0Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point jumper88–131
- Q452.4Jordan Miller makes 3-foot reverse layup (Kobe Sanders assists)88–131
- Q458.6Keon Ellis out of bounds bad pass turnover88–129
- Q459.0Kobe Brown personal foul88–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:53James Harden makes driving layupSAC 2 – 4 LAC · LAC 75% → 79% +3LAC 75% → 79%+3 pts
- Q19:09Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)SAC 4 – 7 LAC · LAC 75% → 80% +5LAC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:31James Harden makes 25-foot three pointer (Yanic Konan Niederhauser assists)SAC 10 – 17 LAC · LAC 81% → 85% +4LAC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q14:50Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)SAC 12 – 20 LAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q13:57Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)SAC 17 – 21 LAC · SAC 15% → 19% +4SAC 15% → 19%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML SAC +295 / LAC -375
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.8%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -312
- SAC +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 104.5 – 114.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −20 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +189 Elo | LAC 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 111.528th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 114.812th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.4 | Margin | −3.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.5 | Offense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 116.324th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.8 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301547 | Opponent Elo | 15225th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301422 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–20 | 12–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 11–18 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–6 LAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Apr 11LAC 101 @ SAC 100Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Mar 9SAC 110 @ LAC 111Picked LAC 68%Hit
- Nov 22SAC 88 @ LAC 104Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Nov 8LAC 107 @ SAC 98Picked SAC 68%Miss
- Apr 2LAC 95 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 59%Hit
- Feb 25SAC 123 @ LAC 107Picked LAC 61%Miss
- Dec 12SAC 99 @ LAC 119Picked LAC 54%Hit
- Nov 29LAC 131 @ SAC 117Picked SAC 56%Miss