LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- James HardenAssists10
- James HardenRebounds11
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints26
- DeMar DeRozanAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–100
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound101–100
- Q40.1DeMar DeRozan misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot101–100
- Q42.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Norman Powell101–100
- Q42.0Kris Dunn enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic101–100
- Q42.0DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Devin Carter101–100
- Q42.0Kings Full timeout101–100
- Q43.0James Harden bad pass (Keegan Murray steals)101–100
- Q43.2Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Ivica Zubac101–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:20Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 78 – 72 SAC · LAC 72% → 82% +10LAC 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q410:52Devin Carter makes 32-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)LAC 78 – 75 SAC · SAC 18% → 28% +10SAC 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q47:38Ivica Zubac makes 8-foot two point shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)LAC 84 – 80 SAC · LAC 68% → 77% +9LAC 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q41:24Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 99 – 96 SAC · SAC 3% → 16% +13SAC 3% → 16%+13 pts
- Q451.1DeMar DeRozan makes 8-foot two point shotLAC 100 – 98 SAC · SAC 5% → 20% +15SAC 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML LAC -275 / SAC +225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -238
- SAC +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 116.0 – 108.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +87 | −16 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +185 Elo | LAC 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 116.09th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 19–2020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–34 | 35–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–19 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 43–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 5–2 SAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.